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ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC (ALGN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1’25 revenue of $979.3M and non-GAAP EPS of $2.13 came in slightly above Wall Street consensus on revenue ($975.8M*) and above on EPS ($1.99*); GAAP operating margin was 13.4% (FX headwind ~1.1 pts q/q and ~1.4 pts y/y) and non-GAAP operating margin was 19.1% .
  • Clear Aligner volume rose 6.2% y/y to 642.3k cases with teens/growing patients up 13.3% y/y; Systems & Services grew 1.2% y/y despite seasonal q/q decline, supported by iTero Lumina adoption .
  • FY’25 outlook raised to 3.5%–5.5% revenue growth (from “low single digits” in Feb); Q2’25 revenue guide $1.05B–$1.07B with sequential margin expansion (~+3 pts GAAP and non-GAAP) and gross margin up on higher ASPs/volume .
  • Catalysts/overhangs: favorable U.K. VAT tribunal ruling (potential ASP/discount relief if sustained) and tariff mitigation plans; FX remains a swing factor, and mix shift to non-comprehensive products continues to pressure ASPs .
  • Strategic innovation drumbeat (MA with occlusal blocks; Align X‑ray Insights AI; restorative software for iTero Lumina) underpins medium‑term growth narrative and DSO channel momentum .

Note: Consensus estimates marked with * are from S&P Global; see Estimates Context for details.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Broad-based volume growth: Clear Aligner cases +6.2% y/y to 642.3k; teens/growing patients +13.3% y/y with record first‑quarter submitters and higher GP utilization; CEO: “highest y/y growth rate for both adult and teen patients since 2021” .
    • Innovation tailwinds: iTero Lumina restorative software launched late March; management cited positive feedback and record scanner systems/wands in a quarter, supporting Systems & Services +1.2% y/y despite seasonality .
    • FY’25 growth outlook raised; Q2 guide implies sequential revenue and margin expansion; UK VAT ruling favorable and considered a potential lever on U.K. pricing/discounts if sustained .
  • What Went Wrong

    • FX headwinds weighed on revenue (~$31.1M y/y) and margins (operating margin −1.4 pts y/y impact); non-GAAP operating margin fell 0.7 pts y/y to 19.1% .
    • ASP pressure from mix/discounts persisted; Clear Aligner revenue per case dropped to $1,240 (from $1,295 in Q4’24 and $1,350 in Q1’24); management highlighted product mix shift to lower-priced, non‑comprehensive products .
    • Working capital: Days sales outstanding increased to 97 days (+7 q/q, +11 y/y) given extended terms to support practices; deferred revenues declined y/y for both Clear Aligners and Systems & Services .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior periods and estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$977.9 $995.2 $979.3
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.55 $1.39 $1.27
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.35 $2.44 $2.13
Gross Margin (%)69.7% 70.0% 69.5%
GAAP Operating Margin (%)16.6% 14.5% 13.4%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (%)22.1% 23.2% 19.1%
Q1 2025 Consensus Revenue ($M)975.8*
Q1 2025 Consensus EPS ($)1.99*
  • FX impact: revenue −$31.1M y/y; operating margin −1.4 pts y/y; EPS impact −$0.12 y/y (management commentary) .
  • Non‑GAAP adjustments in Q1’25 included SBC ($45.0M), amortization ($4.39M), restructuring/other ($2.06M), legal settlement loss ($4.18M) .

Asterisk denotes S&P Global consensus values retrieved via GetEstimates.

Segment breakdown

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Clear Aligner Revenue ($M)$786.8 $794.3 $796.8
Imaging Systems & CAD/CAM Revenue ($M)$191.0 $200.9 $182.4
Clear Aligner Shipments (Cases)617,220 628,730 642,305

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Invisalign Trained Doctor Submitters (#)87,380 85,685 85,275
Total Utilization (cases/doctor)7.1 7.3 7.5
Clear Aligner Revenue per Case ($)$1,275 $1,295 $1,240
Teens & Growing Patients (Cases)236.3k (teens, Q3) 225.8k; +13.3% y/y

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 5, 2025)Current Guidance (Apr 30, 2025)Change
Revenue growth (y/y)FY 2025“Low single digits” 3.5%–5.5% Raised
Revenue ($)Q1 2025$965M–$985M Actual $979.3M In line with range
Revenue ($)Q2 2025$1,050M–$1,070M New
GAAP Operating MarginQ2 2025~+3 pts q/q New
Non-GAAP Operating MarginQ2 2025~+3 pts q/q New
Non-GAAP Operating MarginFY 2025~22.5% ~22.5% Maintained
GAAP Operating Margin vs 2024FY 2025~+2 pts vs 2024 ~+2 pts vs 2024 Maintained
Clear Aligner VolumeFY 2025Mid-single digit growth Mid-single digit growth Maintained
Clear Aligner ASPsFY 2025Down y/y (FX/mix) Down y/y (mix; emerging markets) Maintained
Systems & ServicesFY 2025Grow faster than Aligners Grow faster than Aligners Maintained
Gross MarginQ2 2025Up q/q (higher ASPs/volume) New
CapexFY 2025$100M–$150M $100M–$150M Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (Non-GAAP)Ongoing~20% (long-term) ~20% (long-term) Maintained
DividendsNone disclosedNone disclosedN/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Product innovation (iTero Lumina)iTero Lumina launched; Systems & Services strong y/y growth Restorative software launched late March; positive customer feedback; record scanner systems/wands Improving adoption
Teens/growing patientsRecord teen starts in China; solid teen mix Teens/growing +13.3% y/y; IPE momentum; MA with occlusal blocks launched Accelerating
AI/diagnosticsAlign X‑ray Insights AI CADe launched in EU/UK Emerging
ASPs/mixPressure from mix and FX in Q4 Continued mix shift to non‑comprehensive; FX turns slight tailwind at spots; UK VAT could ease discounts if upheld Stabilizing (FX), mix pressure persists
Tariffs/supply chainRestructuring and commentary, monitoring tariffs USMCA exemption for Mexico-made goods per EO; China-for-China; Israel 10% tariff ~$1M/month impact baked into guidance Managed risk
Regional trendsU.S. sluggish in Q3; EMEA/APAC strength Strength across APAC/EMEA; NA growth resumed; LATAM softer Improving breadth
DSOs channelDSO volume up q/q and y/y for Aligners and scanners Strengthening
Regulatory/legalUK VAT tribunal favorable; HMRC appeal window through June 19 Positive (pending finality)

Management Commentary

  • “Fiscal 2025 is off to a good start with Q1 Clear Aligner volumes up both sequentially and year-over-year… highest year-over-year growth rate for both adult and teen patients since 2021.” — Joe Hogan, CEO .
  • “We delivered more scanner systems and wands in a quarter than ever before… feedback regarding our Lumina portfolio has been positive.” — Joe Hogan .
  • “We expect our Q2’25 GAAP and non-GAAP operating margin to be up sequentially by approximately 3 points… [and] 2025 non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 22.5%.” — John Morici, CFO .
  • On tariffs: “We think we’ll be able to mitigate [impacts]… we positioned ourselves as a truly global business,” with Mexico-for-U.S., China-for-China, and Poland for Europe .
  • On UK VAT: favorable tribunal ruling that Clear Aligners are dental prostheses (VAT-exempt condition); potential to adjust discounts if ruling stands .

Q&A Highlights

  • ASP dynamics: Management affirmed FY narrative of ASPs down y/y on mix, with FX turning slight tailwind at current spots; MA with occlusal blocks carries a slightly higher price and could aid ASP mix at the margin .
  • Tariff mitigation: USMCA-compliant Mexico manufacturing for U.S.; China-for-China with supply chain adjustments for raw materials; ~$1M/month impact at baseline 10% Israel tariff incorporated in guidance .
  • Margin drivers: Expansion rooted in manufacturing efficiencies, materials/logistics savings, and product mix (e.g., MAOB) despite tariff considerations; aiming for +70 bps op margin y/y in 2025 .
  • Demand/backdrop: Breadth across geographies and both teen/adult segments; sequential improvement expected into Q2; no evidence of China backlash to date .
  • Working capital/financing: DSO terms and patient financing partners (e.g., HFD) supporting demand; DSO channel outpacing retail doctors .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: Actual revenue $979.3M vs consensus $975.8M* (beat); non-GAAP EPS $2.13 vs consensus $1.99* (beat) .
  • Q4 2024 (context): Revenue $995.2M vs $999.2M* (slight miss); non-GAAP EPS $2.44 vs $2.45* (in line) .
  • Q2 2025 (guide vs street): Company revenue guidance $1.05B–$1.07B vs consensus $1.061B*; guide brackets consensus and implies sequential margin expansion .

Asterisk denotes S&P Global consensus values retrieved via GetEstimates.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution beat: Modest top‑line and EPS beats, with broad-based volume strength (teens/adults, APAC/EMEA, improving NA) underpinning raised FY’25 revenue growth to 3.5%–5.5% .
  • Mix headwinds vs innovation tailwinds: Non‑comprehensive product mix and discounting weigh on ASPs, but MA with occlusal blocks and restorative iTero software can support pricing/margins over time .
  • Margin trajectory intact: Despite FX/tariff volatility, Align targets ~22.5% non‑GAAP op margin for FY’25; Q2 margin guided up ~3 pts sequentially on higher ASPs/volume .
  • Risk management: UK VAT ruling reduces an overhang (pending appeal); tariff exposure is mitigated by regionalized manufacturing and supply adjustments; FX remains a variable .
  • KPIs healthy: Utilization improved to 7.5; shipments +6.2% y/y; DSO channel expanding faster than retail; watch DSO (days sales outstanding) at 97 days as a working capital consideration .
  • Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q2 delivery vs bracketed consensus and Investor Day follow-ups on product pipeline; sustained teen momentum (IPE/MAOB) and Lumina uptake can drive estimate revisions if ASP/mix stabilizes .

Supporting Data

Q1’25 vs Q1’24 (y/y)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025y/y
Revenue ($M)$997.4 $979.3 −1.8%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.39 $1.27 −$0.12
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$2.14 $2.13 −$0.01
Gross Margin (%)70.0% 69.5% −0.5 pts
GAAP Op Margin (%)15.5% 13.4% −2.1 pts
Non-GAAP Op Margin (%)19.8% 19.1% −0.7 pts
Clear Aligner Shipments (k)605.1 642.3 +6.2%

Non-GAAP reconciliation highlights (Q1’25)

ItemQ1 2025
SBC add-back$44.997M
Amortization add-back$4.390M
Restructuring/other add-back$2.056M
Legal settlement loss add-back$4.178M
Non-GAAP operating margin19.1%

Selected balance sheet/cash flow

  • Cash & equivalents: $873.0M (3/31/25) vs $1,043.9M (12/31/24) .
  • Operating cash flow: $52.7M in Q1’25; Capex $25.3M; FCF $27.4M .
  • Share repurchase: $72.1M completed from prior plan; $129.0M repurchased under $225M remaining authorization in Q1’25 .

Other relevant Q1’25 press releases

  • Align X‑ray Insights AI CADe launched in EU/UK; positioned to enhance diagnostics and treatment acceptance .
  • Invisalign System with mandibular advancement featuring occlusal blocks: commercial availability (U.S./Canada; later EMEA) for Class II correction, a premium comprehensive adjunct .

Footnote on estimates: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus via GetEstimates.