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ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC (ALGN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1’25 revenue of $979.3M and non-GAAP EPS of $2.13 came in slightly above Wall Street consensus on revenue ($975.8M*) and above on EPS ($1.99*); GAAP operating margin was 13.4% (FX headwind ~1.1 pts q/q and ~1.4 pts y/y) and non-GAAP operating margin was 19.1% .
- Clear Aligner volume rose 6.2% y/y to 642.3k cases with teens/growing patients up 13.3% y/y; Systems & Services grew 1.2% y/y despite seasonal q/q decline, supported by iTero Lumina adoption .
- FY’25 outlook raised to 3.5%–5.5% revenue growth (from “low single digits” in Feb); Q2’25 revenue guide $1.05B–$1.07B with sequential margin expansion (~+3 pts GAAP and non-GAAP) and gross margin up on higher ASPs/volume .
- Catalysts/overhangs: favorable U.K. VAT tribunal ruling (potential ASP/discount relief if sustained) and tariff mitigation plans; FX remains a swing factor, and mix shift to non-comprehensive products continues to pressure ASPs .
- Strategic innovation drumbeat (MA with occlusal blocks; Align X‑ray Insights AI; restorative software for iTero Lumina) underpins medium‑term growth narrative and DSO channel momentum .
Note: Consensus estimates marked with * are from S&P Global; see Estimates Context for details.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Broad-based volume growth: Clear Aligner cases +6.2% y/y to 642.3k; teens/growing patients +13.3% y/y with record first‑quarter submitters and higher GP utilization; CEO: “highest y/y growth rate for both adult and teen patients since 2021” .
- Innovation tailwinds: iTero Lumina restorative software launched late March; management cited positive feedback and record scanner systems/wands in a quarter, supporting Systems & Services +1.2% y/y despite seasonality .
- FY’25 growth outlook raised; Q2 guide implies sequential revenue and margin expansion; UK VAT ruling favorable and considered a potential lever on U.K. pricing/discounts if sustained .
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What Went Wrong
- FX headwinds weighed on revenue (~$31.1M y/y) and margins (operating margin −1.4 pts y/y impact); non-GAAP operating margin fell 0.7 pts y/y to 19.1% .
- ASP pressure from mix/discounts persisted; Clear Aligner revenue per case dropped to $1,240 (from $1,295 in Q4’24 and $1,350 in Q1’24); management highlighted product mix shift to lower-priced, non‑comprehensive products .
- Working capital: Days sales outstanding increased to 97 days (+7 q/q, +11 y/y) given extended terms to support practices; deferred revenues declined y/y for both Clear Aligners and Systems & Services .
Financial Results
Headline results vs prior periods and estimates
- FX impact: revenue −$31.1M y/y; operating margin −1.4 pts y/y; EPS impact −$0.12 y/y (management commentary) .
- Non‑GAAP adjustments in Q1’25 included SBC ($45.0M), amortization ($4.39M), restructuring/other ($2.06M), legal settlement loss ($4.18M) .
Asterisk denotes S&P Global consensus values retrieved via GetEstimates.
Segment breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Fiscal 2025 is off to a good start with Q1 Clear Aligner volumes up both sequentially and year-over-year… highest year-over-year growth rate for both adult and teen patients since 2021.” — Joe Hogan, CEO .
- “We delivered more scanner systems and wands in a quarter than ever before… feedback regarding our Lumina portfolio has been positive.” — Joe Hogan .
- “We expect our Q2’25 GAAP and non-GAAP operating margin to be up sequentially by approximately 3 points… [and] 2025 non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 22.5%.” — John Morici, CFO .
- On tariffs: “We think we’ll be able to mitigate [impacts]… we positioned ourselves as a truly global business,” with Mexico-for-U.S., China-for-China, and Poland for Europe .
- On UK VAT: favorable tribunal ruling that Clear Aligners are dental prostheses (VAT-exempt condition); potential to adjust discounts if ruling stands .
Q&A Highlights
- ASP dynamics: Management affirmed FY narrative of ASPs down y/y on mix, with FX turning slight tailwind at current spots; MA with occlusal blocks carries a slightly higher price and could aid ASP mix at the margin .
- Tariff mitigation: USMCA-compliant Mexico manufacturing for U.S.; China-for-China with supply chain adjustments for raw materials; ~$1M/month impact at baseline 10% Israel tariff incorporated in guidance .
- Margin drivers: Expansion rooted in manufacturing efficiencies, materials/logistics savings, and product mix (e.g., MAOB) despite tariff considerations; aiming for +70 bps op margin y/y in 2025 .
- Demand/backdrop: Breadth across geographies and both teen/adult segments; sequential improvement expected into Q2; no evidence of China backlash to date .
- Working capital/financing: DSO terms and patient financing partners (e.g., HFD) supporting demand; DSO channel outpacing retail doctors .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025: Actual revenue $979.3M vs consensus $975.8M* (beat); non-GAAP EPS $2.13 vs consensus $1.99* (beat) .
- Q4 2024 (context): Revenue $995.2M vs $999.2M* (slight miss); non-GAAP EPS $2.44 vs $2.45* (in line) .
- Q2 2025 (guide vs street): Company revenue guidance $1.05B–$1.07B vs consensus $1.061B*; guide brackets consensus and implies sequential margin expansion .
Asterisk denotes S&P Global consensus values retrieved via GetEstimates.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution beat: Modest top‑line and EPS beats, with broad-based volume strength (teens/adults, APAC/EMEA, improving NA) underpinning raised FY’25 revenue growth to 3.5%–5.5% .
- Mix headwinds vs innovation tailwinds: Non‑comprehensive product mix and discounting weigh on ASPs, but MA with occlusal blocks and restorative iTero software can support pricing/margins over time .
- Margin trajectory intact: Despite FX/tariff volatility, Align targets ~22.5% non‑GAAP op margin for FY’25; Q2 margin guided up ~3 pts sequentially on higher ASPs/volume .
- Risk management: UK VAT ruling reduces an overhang (pending appeal); tariff exposure is mitigated by regionalized manufacturing and supply adjustments; FX remains a variable .
- KPIs healthy: Utilization improved to 7.5; shipments +6.2% y/y; DSO channel expanding faster than retail; watch DSO (days sales outstanding) at 97 days as a working capital consideration .
- Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q2 delivery vs bracketed consensus and Investor Day follow-ups on product pipeline; sustained teen momentum (IPE/MAOB) and Lumina uptake can drive estimate revisions if ASP/mix stabilizes .
Supporting Data
Q1’25 vs Q1’24 (y/y)
Non-GAAP reconciliation highlights (Q1’25)
Selected balance sheet/cash flow
- Cash & equivalents: $873.0M (3/31/25) vs $1,043.9M (12/31/24) .
- Operating cash flow: $52.7M in Q1’25; Capex $25.3M; FCF $27.4M .
- Share repurchase: $72.1M completed from prior plan; $129.0M repurchased under $225M remaining authorization in Q1’25 .
Other relevant Q1’25 press releases
- Align X‑ray Insights AI CADe launched in EU/UK; positioned to enhance diagnostics and treatment acceptance .
- Invisalign System with mandibular advancement featuring occlusal blocks: commercial availability (U.S./Canada; later EMEA) for Class II correction, a premium comprehensive adjunct .
Footnote on estimates: Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus via GetEstimates.